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Craig to Anthony: "...there is a 1 in 9 chance that you'll win £100,000."

Hmm.
Clearly, Craig has not done his GCSE statistics module.

Does he really think 9 names are stuck into a hat, and one is drawn randomly at the end for the winner? The way he talks sometimes, its as though either he is endlessly talking nonsense to feign the fact he is so desperate to win....or...he is indeed utterly dumb.


*saying all that though, Craig is not the first to claim that 'the probability of someone going is 100% due to random chance. I often wonder why do housemates seem to come out with the same cliches every year ?

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Calrissian: Degree level Statistician

But ultimately, Craig's right - it is random. It is totally unpredictable. Events can turn a HM's fortune around within a matter of a day - vide Maxwell, a firm favourite for weeks and weeks, but booted in no small part because of Scabgate.

OK, it seems unlikely that Vanessa will win, but let's not forget that previous winners have been rank outsiders just a few weeks before - Brian, Nadia to name but two.

All it would take would be for Vanessa to play a key role in some incident of the magnitude of the Craig/Nasty Nick confrontation in BB1, and she could be a winner.

I don't think that it's totally random. No, it isn't. The winner is unpredictable, but it doesn't mean that the chance for everyone is EQUAL.

I agree that as for now (and probably until the very last week), nobody can predict conclusively who the winner will be (due to the nature that each housemate popularity keep fluctuating). However, we can SAFELY assume that certain group of housemates has more chances than the other. For example: Makosi, Derek, Anthony, Science, Eugene and Kemal (Group A) have MORE PROBABILITY of winning than Craig, Orlaith and Vanessa (Group B). I'm NOT SAYING that Group B has no chance of winning at all. What I mean is: this Group B statistically (based on various indicators) has a much lower chance of winning. So, this fact alone (although it's not conclusively true) devalidates Craig statement that each one of the housemates has an EQUAL 1/9 chance of winning. No, it doesn't TOTALLY work that way. This "random theory" is completely unrealistic.

To put it in an analogy: think of World Cup. Do we know who's the next World Cup champion? No, we don't. And based on previous tournament, it's getting harder and harder to predict. Simply put it, the winner is UNPREDICTABLE. But does it mean that ALL COUNTRIES have equal chance of winning (or can we say that the winner could come out from a complete random chance)? Definitely NO. Yes, all countries can "possibly" win; but the "probablity" for Brazil to win is of course realistically much higher compare to Taiwan or Sri Lanka.

This is the point that Craig missed in his dumb statement. He was talking about statistical chance of winning (by quoting 1/9, etc). But he simply forgot that statistical chance must be measured by "realistic probability", and not "random possibility". Thus I agree that Craig CLEARLY has not done his GSCE statistic module. In fact, there's a possibility too.. that he may NEVER attend school at all.

Both Brian and Nadia had been among the TOP THREE contenders half through the show (Week 6 and after). And, Nadia had been THE CLEAR FAVOURITE in the last three week. So, they were never an OUTSIDER to win BB.

Vanessa will never does nothing all day should have been in bb 4

Brian was at something like 55-1 at one stage, as was Nadia.

I've grown fond of Craig - his devotion to Ant is soooo poignant to watch. I wish Ant was more considerate about Craig's feelings, I really do!

Welcome to the side of right, truth and justice, Geena!

You too, Bunny. I knew you'd get back on track sooner or later.

I can't remember Brian was ever on that position. But if he was, then it must be the first two weeks. That's because people assume the public couldn't possibly adore a homosexual. But I remember Brian was among the top contenders half through the show (week 5-6 and the following).

And yes, during the FIRST TWO WEEKS, Nadia was favourite to be evicted; and the least favourite to win. Again, that was because the sentiment that British public couldn't possibly adore a transexual. However, Nadia was among the TOP THREE constenders half through the show (week 5-6 and the following).

After half through a show, NEVER DID happen in any British Reality TV, the least favourite contestant CAME OUT as the winner. There's always an element of surprise between the top three (or 4-5) contestants (the top contender not necessarily always come out as the winner). But, it never did happen the TWO LEAST FAVOURITE overtake the top contenders.

Give both of them another two weeks in the house, and I can assure you that the friendship will torn apart. Probably it will in the next seven days. Anthony had shown, in more than one occasion, his 'disgust' towrads Craig. There're lot things that annoy Anthony: i.e. Craig constant odd statement, his overy 'touchy' (physically) habit, his over sensitive behaviour (his fragility - will cry and moan over everything; and ironically, he is also capable of bitching about everyone!).

Last night, Anthony said: "Craig, can you move over there. You hurt my leg". That's a sarcastic comment to make because all Craig did was 'rubbing softly' Ant's leg on the other side of the sofa.

Craig also asked Ant (in his typical camp attention-seeker style): "Do you hate me then?"

And, Anthony replied jokingly (with smile and hi face looking somewhere, avoiding to look at Craig 'disgusting puppy' eyes): "Yes, I hate you. I really do hate you!" Trust me, this is more than joking!

The only way this friendship could survive is: Craig stopping immediately his "I am your slave and I am the submissive - I'm looking after you - and nobody else should" kind of attitude. If you read CH4 forums, many fans have also pointed out this issue.

Poor Craig. Unrequited love is so painful.

I would take a guess, that the winner would be someone who all of the group don't see as a threat to them. Either that, or someone who they all get along with. If there's someone that stands out because of their helpfullness, or someone who likes to get along with everybody, this might become noticeable, and they'll then decide to get rid of them. Lets hope Eugene isn't nominated then, if he starts becoming popular with the housemates, they might pick up on this, and they might just nominate him. They could always say something like "i just don't get on with him, he isn't interested in the same stuff as me".

it's too hard to gauge, allow me to use a BB3 analogy (yet again )

Day 1 - Kate was favourite according to papers
week 1 - Spencer was favourite
week 4 - Alex was favourite, because he saw off Spencer
penultimate week - Jade was favourite, due to backlash against papers
post final Sunday psych show - Kate was favourite again, after hachet job on Jonny

at the moment the favourite are:

Makosi, because she's so talked about
Derek, because he's survived a few evictions
Kemal, because he's 'entertaining'
and maybe Anthony because he's 'nice'

it's still up in the air for me