Time is right for Murray to strike
by Jonathan Overend - Five Live tennis correspondent
Ouch, tricky first round draw for Andy Murray out here in Melbourne but after that it’s wide open, the numbers really couldn’t have fallen any more sweetly for him.
Jo Wilfried-Tsonga is fired up for a major breakthrough in 2008 and when they meet in the opening round of the year’s first major, Tsonga will smell blood.
Remember he was pretty sure of himself when he ended Tim Henman’s career at the US Open and didn’t think twice about dumping Lleyton Hewitt out of his home tournament in Adelaide last week.
Tsonga is 38 in the world - one of the highest ranked players any of the seeds could have drawn - and I see him striking the top 25 this year. He’s finally getting it together after stalling for a couple of years immediately after his big breakthrough.
But Murray knows how to beat him, as he did in the Metz quarter-finals last year, and should have too much guile for the impatient Frenchman. He’ll use all his tricks, his pace changes and his angles. Tsonga might get a set but the whole package should be too much for him over the best of five.
Then, if he can clear that first fence, Murray has a remarkable draw:
Brzezicki or a qualifier in round two, Chela possibly in round three (who he beat comfortably here last year and subsequently in Madrid), Gasquet the likely last 16 opponent and - this is where Murray really gets lucky - Nicolay Davydenko in the quarters, when he could have drawn Federer, Nadal or Djokovic.
Now, all the above is purely hypothetical but if Murray wants to win a Slam - and he does have a chance of doing that this year -starting in Melbourne, then he needs to beat seven people so we might as well find out who those seven might be.
In reality, this is a glorious chance to record his best Grand Slam performance (as it would have been at Wimbledon had he been fit to play) and the time is right for Murray to strike.
He can gatecrash the second week of a major for the first time and become the real story here, perhaps even on finals weekend.
Why?
He's hitting the ball beautifully in practice, he's top of the form guide having won in Qatar, there’s the undoubted physical improvement and the not inconsiderable factor of the personnel changes to his support team.
Suddenly, out has gone Brad Gilbert with his chit chat and penchant for Japanese food at Kokos, the tennis community's Melbourne restaurant-du-jour.
In has come Miles Maclagan, the knowledgeable but softly-spoken touring coach, Andy Ireland the laugh-a-minute physio and Matt Little, the LTA’s Head of Strength and Conditioning who, in collaboration with Jez Green from the Monte Carlo Tennis Academy, has structured an intense physical programme which has paid instant dividends.
The most important thing here; it’s a team. They work as a team, they play as a team. They have a kick about on the court at the end of practice and the backroom guys keep themselves amused by betting how many points Murray will win in a particular session. There's good spirit, there's positivity. Just how Murray likes it.
For all Gilbert’s undoubted expertise, there was often friction between player and coach. This new set-up is good for Murray. It will reduce the mood swings and remove some of the on-court volatility, which has to be a step forward. He suddenly feels among friends.
Davis Cup captain John Lloyd is also here and the news which is really pleasing him, apart from a couple of new signings for his beloved Wolves, is the form of Jamie Baker, Britain’s number three.
Baker is almost certainly going to get the nod over Alex Bogdanovic for the second singles berth in Britain’s Davis Cup squad, especially as he's made the third round of qualifying here in the Melbourne heat.
His second-round win over Alexander Peya featured rallies which seemed to go on for ever. Good preparation, therefore, for the Buenos Aires clay. First, the hard-working Scotsman will hope to qualify for a debut Grand Slam main draw away from Wimbledon. He deserves it.
The other thing to look forward to this fortnight is the return to the Grand Slam arena of Lindsay Davenport. I remember speaking to Lindsay here three years ago. She felt retirement was getting close but, a few months later, came to within a point of winning Wimbledon, putting those thoughts on hold.
She played through until the autumn of 2006 when she announced she was expecting her first child with husband Jon Leach. Jagger Jonathan was born in June last year.
Remarkably, since returning to the tour in August 2007, she’s won three of the four tournaments in which she’s played singles. In Bali, Quebec and, at the start of this new season, in Auckland.
Davenport has come out of retirement in sensational form, showing she’s more than capable of returning to the top 10. It’s a similar tale to that of Martina Hingis except, unlike the other former world number one, Davenport’s career is unlikely to end in drugs shame, more as proud Mum showing the kids the way to go.
There will be full commentary on every night session match from 0830 on Radio 5 Live Sports Extra.
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