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Calrissian

Oh yes, finally we might get a taste of the good stuff...

Quote:

WTNT33 KNHC 091446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...20TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN AN UNUSUAL LOCATION... IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES AND CLOSE TO THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS...

Very rare...go check out the latest pics...
try the D2 image...
http://meteosat.e-technik.uni-ulm.de/me ... atest.html

Vince looks very impressive considering it is in the cool waters of the north eastern Atlantic.

Calrissian: Come get some Vince, he is ready for ya.

JimD

Thanks Cal, looks ominous for Portugal at least. If it builds in the Bay of Biscay we are in for a rough one.
Anyone having a late break in Portugal may get more than they bargained for. :-?

Calrissian

well, actually it'll probably fade away mostly,.....although then again it might just change into a traditional 'low' and whack someone...maybe even England/Ireland.

The eye is VERY amazing to see in that high lattitude. This sort of event is very much rarer than storms like Katrina. Real historical importance here.

Calrissian: Has no cousin Vinny

S and K rule

Aslong as its not a hurricane its ok

Hurricane Frances were fun but it werent my house, it were someones villa lol!

But if it gets me off school.......bring it on!

Calrissian

oh yes, it just gets better !

Quote:

...VINCE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS...
...MAINLY A HAZARD FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 18.6 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES...
865 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... BUT VINCE
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES... 130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

This is truly stunning, a hurricane only 1000 miles away from the UK, and heading our way. Fantastic to watch, Vince is bombing and may well hold onto some 'strong' winds even as it moves further NE.

Vince is breaking all the rules in the science journals. Hurricanes are NOT meant to be in that area, EVER. Water is too cool, the conditions are not right for a storm, but its there, and growing.

Calrissian:

pikeylass

We often get tail enders this time of year...but I've looked and this is as close a profile as 1987...bring it on??Hell..I live inland

Calrissian

well yes, the UK/Ireland/Iceland get most of the remnants of most hurricanes post United States, since they naturally curve back north eastwards and then eastwards across the north Atlantic.

What is extraordinarily rare is for a Hurricane to form in the east Atlantic, and then move NE, and intensify over cool water. Simply put, it goes against basic weather physics.

Will be fascinating to see how Vince proceeds this week.

Cal: eyes on Vinny

pikeylass

Yes but isnt that because the atlantic's unusually warm..so has the potential to brew?That said....it should lose potency if it tracks NE at the labrador coast and not hit the jet stream...

Agreed..fascinating tho

larry

I agree ,they normally like warm water.

I have a few interesting Infra-red Meteorsat images of storms over the UK with well formed Eyes.

The Image at the top of the thread is in use on my weather page. I was using the D2 image off another German site but they now require a password and they link to the same image for the free image.

The weather page is
http://www.bigbrotherworldwide.com/liveweather.html

Current MET office rain rader image also available alone with the current data from my weather station.

I'll be watching this one as well.

Calrissian

pikeylass wrote:

Yes but isnt that because the atlantic's unusually warm..so has the potential to brew?That said....it should lose potency if it tracks NE at the labrador coast and not hit the jet stream...

Agreed..fascinating tho

the Sea temps are not much different from normal in our part of the world.

re: labrador coast - that is an area between Canada and Newfoundland.

Vince is to the SW of Spain, and will not being moving NW. Its heading our way, into the Bay of Biscay...and from there...naturally it'd normally move North and eastwards.
--
Vince.....reminiscent of the Oct'15/16 1987 storm, although that infamous storm was indeed an entirely different - and more conventional type of low pressure area.

*only one name left 'Wilma', after that its Greek Alphabet time

Calrissian: Hurricane Gamma

pikeylass

Sorry,Cal..I thought it was tracking north on warm water...Sorry to be dim..but are you saying this originated as usual in the atlantic..but has somehow tracked to Europe instead of USA?As you say this is the same as 1987 atm....but usually these storms will fizzle out....I cannot see any reason why it would do so atm tho..what's your opo?

Calrissian

Vince is VERY unusual because...

1. It grew and developed just yesterday in the eastern Atlantic - thats rare in itself, most hurricanes develop in the western Atlantic..in the warm shallows near the Caribbean.

2. The water where Vince is located is not very warm. Hurricanes are special storms, their structure is totally different from how a standard UK storm system works.

To have a storm of this nature just 1000 miles away from the UK is beyond exceptional, its off the scale of amazing.

great pic...

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... A052821410

updated...
http://meteosat.e-technik.uni-ulm.de/cg ... =99&D.y=37
===
Vince will probably 'fizzle'...but then...maybe not. Its been a unique storm season. 22 storms so far (20 with names), and there are still 7 weeks to go of the traditional 'Hurricane season'.

Calrissian: watching Adama

pikeylass

Thanks Cal.Funny tho..have been looking at the tracking pics(courtesy weatherbug via my brother in Maryland)..the depression does seem to be deepening..also the 5 day forecast predicts rising temps here...so that would fuel a storm..it's also moving pretty quick.The only factor I can see would halt it is a sudden cold snap and atm we have warm nights also on the cards.
Checking the Irish 5 day.. for Friday..severe storm force winds locally to 9/10 predicted ..(Offshore not onshore)

Calrissian

Pikey, it doesn't work that way.

Hurricanes are special. They work on the heat contained within the water, that is what fuels them. Ordinary UK storms work on the difference in temps between cold/warm air masses (usually).

Vince is moving slowly actually, 1000 miles away, at 6mph, thats a lot of hours to elapse before it gets even near Spain/Portugal.

**
Super new ultra cool weblink...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Well worth bookmarking, contains ALL the information on what is happening.
--
Calrissian: wondering if Vince is the omen...that that storm of 1987 was.

pikeylass

6mph is pretty slow for a storm..agreed.
Anyhow,,thanks for the link,C.Is an area that fascinates me

BB FANS

Hurricane Vince - UK bound (maybe)

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