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Weather experts fear Britain will be gripped by the coldest winter for a decade - and it could endanger energy supplies.

The Met Office has put the energy industry, the NHS and the Government on high alert.

There even are concerns the nation could run out of fuel - gas supplies are much lower than elsewhere in Europe.

The Times says the government will hold an emergency meeting of industry and energy company leaders next month.

Sir Digby Jones, director general of the CBI, said: "If we have a cold winter, we are going to throw the switch: businesses will shut down."

The National Grid has reportedly formulated emergency plans to ensure supply is maintained to homeowners.

Manufacturers and other large gas consumers will be required to shut down factories on particularly cold days.

Ah - I heard this story a few weeks back on Irish radio....(but seem to recall being advised that it wasn't factually accurate ).

Apparently the Irish Met service weren't planning to issue any such warning, as they prefer to stick to their 5-day forecast.

Whatever next, is this another excuse to put the prices up? Mind you, with what the rest of the worlds been getting lately, it's only going to be a matter of time before it's our turn. That film the day after tomorrow is starting to look more like a documentary every day.

The film took poetic license to accelerate the on set of the events but the rest if factual. There was a Horizon program regarding the slowdown of the thermal current that heats the Northern hemisphere.
The melting of the ice caps adding unsalted water into the Atlantic around Iceland can drastically slow things down leading to cooling.
They said from the Ice core samples that this had happened fives times so far creating Ice Ages.

I'm sure someone in the know will give some stats as to the likely hood of this actually happening in the near future but it's not impossible.

Did they not say that we were going to have the worst winter ever last winter? For us anyway it wasn't actually that bad - little snow in comparison to what's been seen before. Our school was only shut for one afternoon and that is very very rare, plus all the bus pupils got in virtually every day too.

We tend to have it quite mild down South. But I remember a winter I think in the 80s where after a period of heavy rain a large almost static area of high pressure took over during Feb staying for something like 6 weeks during which you were lucky if the daytime high was -10C. I did a 6 mile walk into work after by moped froze.
Before that I think late 70s there was a winter with a good amount of snowfall with drifts over 6 feet deep.

I don't know how they can predict months in advance and hope to get close to the forecast. The weather changes from day to day often leading to predictions changing during the day.

Mind you, looking on the positive side. I'm looking forward to building a snowman for my neice and nephew, and him not melting within a couple of hours

you have to larf..they say it every year just as they said this summer would be the hottest on record.

It weren't too bad but it was nothing like 2 years ago.

likelihood = Unknown.

Personal estimate
1yr- <1%
5yrs 15-20%
10yrs 20-35%
25-50yrs - 60%
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One of the most important things I ever learnt from my long study of climatology and the social sciences is of 'tipping points'. Nature is one for equilibrium, it rarely does things slowly. It will continue will phase A...until quite abruptly it will move onto phase B.

Now, one secondary issue is that to get back to Phase A' (which lets say is the 'nice one') might take thousands of years - regardless of what efforts are made to recify the original mess.
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As for winter 2005/6
It'll probably be mild, usually is. Then again, if not, we could be seeing all sorts of 'crazy stuff'.

I was just looking on amazon.co.uk at gas stoves. At the very least, if I lost power for a week or so, it would be nice to have hot tea, and the ability to have a couple of warm meals each day, rather than sit in a corner and expect the govt. to come running with military air drops of food/water.
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Naturally, most UK people have absolutely no memory/understanding of what a really cold winter might do. Its been over 40 years since we had a really nasty winter, and despite the general warming trend, you will still get the occasional 'stinker' of a winter. A winter where there is snow on the ground for more than 4 weeks, with power cuts, the inability to travel for more than a week at a time, and freezing rains which could bring down power lines, and lead to utter chaos for months.

Calrissian: make provision for a 'snowy day'

I remember a few snowy ones down here in the mid 80's or is that just my memory playing tricks? like we remember hot summers as kids.

No significant snow here apart from one day last year for the best part of a decade.

we had a few cold winters after Mt. St Helens went boom in the early 1980s. Yet after the mid 1980s it has been virtually snowless for much of the UK.

*I remember walking to school, with snow/ice cover a foot deep - which lasted 4-6 weeks, this would have been 1981/2 I think.

I'd love to see a good ol' 6 foot snowdrift in southern UK. One that really wakes up many who have forgotton we are meant to get snow/frosts in winter.

Calrissian: distant memories of a fading childhood.

I was thinking it was Feb 84 when it started. Timing was based on being on YTS at the time.

If I remember correctly there had been some very heavy rain in the North and I think it was York where boats were being used to get to some parts.
Then a large stable area of High Pressure took hold freezing the floods. I know there were also some heavy snow as the back road locally was blocked for a couple of weeks due to a section where neighbouring councils couldn't decide who's responsibility it was.
Daytime highs were in the region of -10C and night lows below -20C.
A local village set a record of -27.2C.
I remember doing a brisk walk home (about 1/2 mile) and having ice on my face. And also walking into work with temperatures around -12C.

Prior to that I think last 70's where there were some big snow drifts round here. We were kind of skating on one of the frozen fields in the Nene valley. Then we went down to the river where my mate had the bright idea of walk across one of the run offs which was mainly ice and shallow. He managed to break the ice and falling in. By the time we'd walked the mile or so back to his house his clothes was solid ice on the outside. Good example of why you shouldn't play on the ice. The field was better as it was only a few inches of frozen water.

Looking through the Mean figures available from the MET Office site I think I'm out by a couple of years by saying 1984 was the freeze year.

The numbers say 1986 had a Feb mean temp of -1.3C and the preceding wet weather is backed by Jan of that year with 119.8mm followed by a very dry Feb (16.5mm).

The late 70's cold spell looks to have been 1979 with Jan Mean temp of -0.3C and Feb mean temp of 0.9C.

British industry could suffer fuel shortages if Met Office predictions of a severely cold winter are correct, the government has said.

"There is no doubt we would be under stress," government minister Lord Davies told peers.

He was answering a question from former Coal Board head Lord Ezra, who asked how the UK could cope if temperatures fell to levels last seen in 1963.

Such a severe winter "only happens twice a century", Lord Davies added.

"We guarantee in all circumstances supplies to domestic consumers," he said.

And industrial consumers would "adapt to these changing circumstances as they have always done in the past".

Forecasters are predicting that Britain could be facing one of the coldest winters in a decade.

Ewen McCallum, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, has said it is important to give an "amber alert" to government, fuel firms, business and the health sector.

Mr McCallum told BBC Radio 4 Today's programme: the aim was for "forward planning" to "make sure that government departments and business utilities have got their act together".

Mr McCallum said the Met office prediction of a cold winter was 66% likely to be proved correct.

He said the calculations were based on the "North Atlantic oscillation" - a measure of sea temperatures which normally correlate with weather patterns.

Present readings suggest there will be much less westerly wind, which brings milder air from the Atlantic.

He said: "We have had a pattern of very, very mild winters over the last few years so this will come as a shock."

Story from
BBC NEWS
Published: 2005/10/24 16:20:11 GMT

don't know about 'big chill' in winter time - but it's blinkin freezin in Aberdeen today - and a howling gale to boot

BBC

Fourteen flood warnings have been issued across England.
The Environment Agency is warning people in the Midlands and the North East to expect flooding. Flood watches for 87 areas have also been issued.

Nine warnings cover areas in the Midlands and three for areas in the North East.

A spokesman for the Met Office said wet and unsettled weather would spread eastwards in the next few hours and would continue over the next few days.

Areas affected in the Midlands:

River Avon from Stanford on Avon to upstream of Rugby in Warwickshire

River Churnet from Leek to Rocester

River Dove from Izaak Walton to Rocester

River Dove from Marston-on-Dove to Clay Mills near Burton

River Dove from Rocester to Doveridge

River Soar from Cossington to Cotes

River Trent from Darlaston to Great Haywood

River Vyrnwy from Llansantffraid to Shrawardine

River Wye from Buxton to Rowsley including Rowsley

Areas affected in the North East:

River Swale Caravan Parks at Richmond

River Swale at Brompton-on-Swale caravan park

River Wharfe at Bolton Bridge