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US elections: Which side was God on?
By Jane Little
BBC News, Washington

President Bush's party may have suffered a defeat at the polls on Tuesday, but reports of the death of the religious right - a large part of the Republican base - were an exaggeration.

A vigil of religious voters at the Capitol in Washington the night before Election Day 2006
Christian conservatives did stand by the Republican Party
An increased number of evangelicals did vote for the Democrats.

But exit polls suggest it was not a major switch of political allegiance, and predictions that the Christian base would desert the Republican Party did not hold.

But even though white evangelicals did not abandon the Republicans, the Democrats look to have made some progress in their aim of closing the "God Gap".

They picked up 29% of the white evangelical vote, up by eight percentage points from 2004 - when conservative evangelicals turned out in force to help deliver President Bush his second term.

Crucial Catholics

But most significantly for the Democrats, they won back the white Roman Catholic vote, which is seen as a key swing constituency.

Two years ago President Bush took 52% of the Catholic vote to John Kerry's 47%.

Graph of US voter preferences by religion in 2004 and 2006
This year's exit polls show a reversal. The Democrats beat Republicans 57%-42%.

Karl Rove, the mastermind of Bush election strategy, made energising the base the focus this year as well - and it appears that he defied expectations that conservative Christians would stay at home.

They had been described as frustrated by a lack of action on social issues like abortion and gay marriage, and disillusioned by corruption and sexual scandals.

But according to exit polls they did go to vote - in large part for the Republican Party.

Evangelicals accounted for 24% of voters (up from 23% in 2004) and 71% of white evangelicals - Christians who describe themselves as "born again" - voted for Republican candidates, according to National Exit Polls.

That is down from the 78% who voted for President Bush in 2004.

"They really were frustrated, but the mobilising effort convinced them that they should vote," said John Green, a political scientist at the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.

And why did they turn out for the Republicans?

According to Mr Green, it was due to a "very effective argument that whatever is wrong with the Republicans, that the government under Nancy Pelosi would be worse".

Ms Pelosi, who is set to become House Speaker, has been portrayed by Republicans as a San Francisco liberal who will sell out traditional moral values.

Democrats' appeal

The born-again voters who backed the Democrats despite Republican rhetoric were most likely moderate evangelicals whose list of "moral issues" extended beyond abortion and gay marriage to include the environment and poverty.

Bob Casey smiling at his victory in Nov 2006
Mr Casey neutralised the contentious question of abortion
A large percentage of evangelicals also indicated before the elections that Iraq was the top of their list of voting priorities.

In some key states where Democratic candidates sought to appeal to religious voters by talking about their own faith, they appear to have been successful.

In Ohio, according to exit polls, Democrats picked up significantly more of the Catholic constituency than they did two years ago.

Ted Strickland, the newly elected governor there, is a Methodist minister who spoke openly about his faith.

In Pennsylvania there was also a significant swing.

Rick Santorum after his defeat in Nov 2006
The defeated Mr Santorum was a favourite of conservatives
Bob Casey is a Catholic, opposed to abortion, and he overwhelmingly beat Rick Santorum to take his Senate seat.

Mr Santorum also describes himself as a "pro-life Catholic". He gained only 41% of the Catholic vote to Mr Casey's 59%.

It appears that Mr Casey neutralised the abortion issue while capitalising on discontent over the war on Iraq and a dislike of Mr Santorum.

Moreover Mr Santorum's was a big symbolic scalp to take because he was a champion of the religious Right and symbolic of their power on Capitol Hill.

Ballot defeats

Some pundits are now suggesting that there will be a period of score settling within the Republican Party as fiscal conservatives, among others, try to take the party back from the perceived domination of the religious Right.

Christian conservatives also suffered defeats on some state ballot initiatives. While seven states passed constitutional amendments to ban same-sex marriage, one state, Arizona, did not - becoming the first to reject such a ban.


This is the movement that has more lives than the proverbial cat
John Green, Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life
Meanwhile in South Dakota, voters rejected a sweeping ban on abortion passed earlier in the year by the state legislature, and voters in Missouri endorsed stem cell research.

But experts warn that it is too early to prepare the political obituary of the religious Right.

"The religious Right's history should not be rewritten on this one," says Michael Cromartie, co-director of the Evangelicals and Civic Life Program at the Washington-based Ethics and Public Policy Center.

In fact since it came to the political fore three decades ago, the Christian conservative movement has had fluctuating fortunes because it is so closely linked to the fortunes of the Republican Party.

But, says John Green, "this is the movement that has more lives than the proverbial cat". He adds that it often prospers more in opposition.

Stereotype collapsing

Many experts agree that evangelicals are often stereotyped as right-wingers who claim a monopoly on God.

That stereotype is now breaking down. Many of them share a moderate centre ground with other faith communities.

There is indeed a religious middle emerging - one that cannot be taken for granted by the Republicans and one the Democrats will have to court.

The Democrats have started that process by backing socially conservative candidates who talk about God.

The test will be whether those Democrats can pursue their agenda in Washington and help the party continue to win over an overwhelmingly religious electorate.




BBC

Rumsfeld exit shakes Bush administration
By Paul Reynolds
World Affairs correspondent, BBC News website


Mr Bush and Mr Rumsfeld together
President and defence secretary: parting company

Rumsfeld's career

The resignation of the US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld shows how much the Bush administration is in disarray about Iraq.

The president made it quite clear at a news conference after the election that he had decided beforehand that a "fresh perspective" was needed at the Pentagon.

This means that, win or lose the election, Mr Bush had decided that things were going badly enough to remove one of the architects of the war.

In fact, when Mr Bush told reporters last week that Mr Rumsfeld would be staying on, he had already spoken to Mr Rumsfeld about leaving.

On Wednesday, Mr Bush told reporters he had decided ahead of the elections that "win or lose, Bob Gates was going to become the nominee".

Whether Robert Gates, a former CIA director, is the kind of man to provide much of a fresh perspective remains to be seen. Until now he has always been an establishment figure. But he seems to be about to become one of the pegs on which new hopes will be hung.

Significant moment

The departure of Donald Rumsfeld is a major moment in the history of the Bush administration and the war in Iraq.


Donald Rumsfeld felt himself to be the right man, in the right place, at the right time



Apart from Vice-President Dick Cheney and President Bush himself, there was nobody who more clearly symbolised the administration's determination to wage the war on terror and to get rid of Saddam Hussein.

"We know they have weapons of mass destruction," he announced of the Iraqis at one stage. "We don't need any debate about it." His confidence and brusque dismissal of dissent was typical. For some, it amounted to arrogance.

Ambitions

Rumsfeld brought to the Pentagon years of ambition to stir up a department he had run as a much younger man under President Ford.

The recent book about the administration at war by Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward, State of Denial, tells of the blizzard of handwritten memos known as "snowflakes" with which he bombarded his officials.

He was determined to break what he saw as the old guard and to get control of policy himself, which he felt was too much in the hands of the generals and admirals.

He wanted a slimmer, more mobile military, one more capable of waging war on international terrorists and governments that supported them and less concentrated on the massive weapons systems that were being developed as if the Cold War had not ended.

Donald Rumsfeld felt himself to be the right man, in the right place, at the right time.

His direct, irascible, sometimes even folksy style appealed to many when things were going well. His famous dictum about there being "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns", made pre-Iraq, was seen as quirky and "Rummy" at his most idiosyncratic.

In a resignation appearance with President Bush and his own successor in the Oval Office, Mr Rumsfeld referred, almost as if he had not been appreciated, to "this little understood, unfamiliar war, the first war of the 21st century... It is not well known, it was not well understood, it is complex for people to comprehend."

Downfall

However, the very confidence that allowed him to make his mark on the Pentagon also led to his downfall - it became overconfidence.

He ignored warnings that his reliance on hard-hitting, relatively small units would win the ground war in Iraq but would not win a guerrilla war.

Like most US policymakers, he simply did not believe that Iraqis would not welcome the invaders and take care of events for themselves from then on.

He was not a man of patience and did not in the end have the necessary patience for a long, drawn out counter insurgency war. Nor did he show the flexibility of tactics needed to demonstrate to his commander-in-chief that he was going to deliver the victory the president believes is so necessary.

He had to go, whatever the results of the elections.
BBC

Rumsfeld in his own words

US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld

Rumsfeld's career
Following a poor Republican result in the US mid-term elections, US President George W Bush has announced that Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is to step down.

Mr Rumsfeld, one of the longest-serving defence secretaries, is known for his rhetoric. Here are a selection of quotes from his six years under George W Bush.

DECEMBER 2004

As you know, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.

2004

It seems to me that it's up to all of us to try to tell the truth, to say what we know, to say what we don't know, and recognise that we're dealing with people that are perfectly willing to, to lie to the world to attempt to further their case and to the extent people lie of, ultimately they are caught lying and they lose their credibility and one would think it wouldn't take very long for that to happen dealing with people like this.

MARCH 2003

We know where they [Iraq's WMD] are. They're in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south, and north somewhat.

FEBRUARY 2003

And it is not knowable if force will be used [in Iraq], but if it is to be used, it is not knowable how long that conflict would last. It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.

OCTOBER 2002

[Osama Bin Laden is] either alive and well or alive and not too well or not alive.

SEPTEMBER 2002

No terrorist state poses a greater or more immediate threat to the security of our people and the stability of the world than the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq.

FEBRUARY 2002

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know.

MAY 2001

Once in a while, I'm standing here, doing something. And I think: 'What in the world am I doing here?' It's a big surprise.




BBC

Rumsfeld's departure pleases Arab press
Former US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
"No tears are being shed over him"

Many Middle East press commentators view what they dub the "fall" of US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld as symbolic of the perceived failure of US policy in Iraq as a whole.

Several predict that his resignation will be the first of many members of the Bush administration.

Commentary by Sana' al-Sa'id in Egypt's AL-USBU

Yes, the Bush administration is beginning to fall... The first sign of this fall is the removal of Rumsfeld, the wolf who brought defeat to America. The fall of Rumsfeld heralds the fall of the agenda of the Bush administration in Iraq. Rumsfeld is gone and will not come back. Everybody will remember that he is the man who managed to push his country to the verge of catastrophe.

Commentary by Muhammad Isa al-Sharqawi in Egypt's AL-AHRAM

Rumsfeld's is not the only head that will roll, as the objective of Bush's Roman Empire is crumbling. An emperor, who used democracy as a slogan to seize oilfields, should not be allowed any consolation because of the chaos and violence he created everywhere.

Commentary by Abd-al-Bari Atwan in London-based AL-QUDS AL-ARABI

Rumsfeld was just the scapegoat for a defeated administration and holding him responsible alone for this defeat implies an unusual naivety and even a great injustice and avoidance of accountability. He was a member of a whole team followed by an army of advisers and implementing a policy drawn up by a President who many agree is stupid and short-sighted.

Commentary by Abd al-Rahman al-Rashid in Baghdad edition of AL-SHARQ AL-AWSAT

Surely, Rumsfeld should take the blame for most of the US debacle in Iraq. After a landslide military victory, the series of mistakes he made there have shown him to be not only ignorant of the realities in Iraq and the region, but clearly inexperienced in the international political game. The question is why did he not - or was he not made to - resign much earlier?

Commentary by Fatih Abd al-Salam in Baghdad edition of AL-ZAMAN

In every one of the 13 visits Rumsfeld paid to Baghdad, he was been given a taste of the final defeat he and his party were going to suffer in Congress. Iraqis are far from satisfied with what has befallen Rumsfeld. They are looking forward to seeing other heads roll, including those of his US and Iraqi cohorts, which are bound to be chopped off either by the Democrats in Washington, or at the hands of Iraqis determined not let the occupier and his lackeys get away with the catastrophic damage they have done in this country.

Commentary by Abd-al-Rahman al Rashid in London-based AL-HAYAT

Rumsfeld is the one who has to be blamed most for the fiasco of US policy in Iraq ... The series of mistakes he made stem from gross ignorance about Iraq and the region ... His removal is the declaration of defeat in America and Iraq.

Commentary by Sahar Ba'asiri in Lebanon's AL-NAHAR

Donald Rumsfeld has fallen and no tears are being shed over him. This was supposed to happen. It was delayed for a long time ... The downfall of Rumsfeld means nothing without a change in the policies of the Bush administration; but will they change?

Editorial in Saudi AL-JAZIRAH

Defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld was the first victim, and it is almost certain that the chain of resignations will continue until the remaining members of the team that supported Rumsfeld's military policy in Iraq are gone... Rumsfeld ... was one of the main architects and supporters of the strategy of what is known in the United States as "the war on terror". Therefore, the changes will affect this aspect... It is also hoped that the changes will affect the important issue in the region.

Commentary by Khayri Mansur in Jordan's AL-DUSTUR

Rumsfeld was the one to whom the expression "old Europe" has stuck for ever. He was the one who did not stop his tongue from committing mistakes many times regarding Islam, the Arabs and other people. That is why I do not think that his farewell party will be overwhelmed by bouquets of flowers from Iraq, Afghanistan or even Paris.

Commentary by Hasan Yunis in Qatar's AL-WATAN

Rumsfeld was not a scapegoat, but he was a victim of the war on Afghanistan then on Iraq. Because of the great mistakes committed under the aegis of fighting terrorism, it was necessary to find someone to pay the price. So, Rumsfeld has made a down-payment, but the bill has not yet been completely paid off.

Commentary by Sulayman Taqi-al-Din in Lebanon's AL-SAFIR

Bush promptly accepted that Americans were unhappy with his policies in Iraq when he swiftly sacked his defence secretary Rumsfeld, one of the architects of this war. Of course, many Arabs feel jubilation. For them this is a smack in the face for Bush. As far as they are concerned: 'Iraq defeated Bush'.

BBC Monitoring selects and translates news from radio, television, press, news agencies and the internet from 150 countries in more than 70 languages. It is based in Caversham, UK, and has several bureaux abroad.
BBC

I am looking forward to the next American civil war.

Team'1: Religious loony toons in the middle 'lets kill the blacks' and 'burn the gays'. Death to all liberals, and we'll kill doctors who perform abortions.

Team'2: West/East coast Liberals. 'lets do what we like, when we like'.

Its going to be one hell of a fight, since both sides equal about half of the population.

Calrissian: Team'2