Week 13 – Finals Night
Standard week long public ‘vote to win’ for each Housemate.
Channel4 released the following percentages for each Housemate (in order of eviction):
6th Jonty 3%
5th Carole 4.9%
4th Ziggy 15.3%
3rd Liam 19.1%
2nd Twins 39.7%
1st Brian 60.3%
However as this is a rolling vote, you cannot directly compare Jonty’s vote share with that of say Brian’s. A quick sum of the percentages reveals a total of 142.3%, so clearly for comparison purposes we need to cap off each Housemate’s percentage as they are evicted and carry forward the remaining.
Example: Jonty and Carole were jointly evicted in 6th and 5th places respectively. Therefore their combined total share of 7.9% must be removed to reveal the share remaining. In effect, the surviving 4 housemates now have 92.1% of the remaining votes shared between them.
So the next evicted housemate’s share is 15.3% of 92.1% (not 100%). This makes Ziggy’s real vote share 14.1%.
The total combined vote pool remaining is now 78%. Again, the same calculation gives Liam’s real vote share as 14.9%.
Interestingly, as each housemate’s share is only counted/recorded just prior to their eviction… it’s quite possible that Ziggy and Liam were VERY close at the time when Ziggy was evicted. Given that the votes continued to pour in while Ziggy was exiting the House; Liam’s eventual 0.8% difference hints at just how narrow it might have been between them?As 36.9% of the votes have now been used up on the first 4 evictees, we can conclude that the final vote pool shared between the last two housemates (Twins and Brian) is 63.1%. This total was then divided roughly 40/60 between them.
We can now draw up a table of (near) comparable percentages *
Jonty 3%
Carole 4.9%
Ziggy 14.1%
Liam 14.9%
Twins 25.1%
Brian 38%
* While the percentages are mathematically accurate (bar a small rounding up/down), the earlier evictees are at a disadvantage in this type of count. Because an (estimated) 80-85% of the voting occurs during the 'live eviction shows', those out first are denied additional vote share by virtue that they have already been eliminated. If it were conducted more like an election with a final count at the end for all candidates then the early evictees would naturally have benefited as people continued to vote for them. It might not change the order of popularity but it would certainly be closer.
The lesson here though is to vote for your favourite and vote early.
Despite what the early numbers suggest... it is often closer than you think
