Sun, sea and miles of empty beach: the paradise that faces disaster
Violent unrest after election has driven away the tourists - mainstay of the economy
The white sands were deserted. Palm trees swayed in the evening breeze, as a dhow and several pleasure boats bobbed on the warm Indian Ocean waters.
It was a snapshot of paradise, but to the hundreds of thousands of Kenyans involved in tourism - and to their millions of dependants - the empty beaches brought to mind another word: disaster.
The unrest that followed the disputed election of President Mwai Kibaki on December 27 has decimated Kenya's tourist industry, which is the mainstay of the economy and normally accounts for 15% of GDP. More than 100,000 holidaymakers, a fifth of them British, were expected to visit the coastal resorts and safari lodges this month. But following travel warnings and graphic scenes of violence on television, just 9,000 tourists are now expected.
All UK charter flights have been cancelled until the summer, as have most from continental Europe, leaving hotels empty, thousands of waiters, cleaners and bar staff on compulsory leave, and taxi drivers, curio sellers and tourist guides with no income.
"Even after al-Qaida bombed the US embassy here in 1998 it was not as bad as this," said Jake Grieves-Cook, of the Kenya Tourist Board, who said that at least 20,000 hotel workers had already lost their jobs. "This is the worst crisis the industry has ever faced."
Kenya's government has been slow to acknowledge the scale of the problem, leaving tour operators frustrated and angry. Yesterday the information minister, Samuel Poghisio, admitted that the last month had been a "dark period in history", but said the violence was fading and urged tourists not be put off, as the situation was "not what you hear and what you see".
The hard facts - more than 1,000 people dead and more than 300,000 displaced - tell their own story, but it is true that tourist areas have been largely unaffected by the unrest. Most of the clashes between ethnic groups, and between police and protesters, have happened in the west, off the safari circuit, or in low-income areas of Nairobi.
The exceptions were the lakeside towns of Naivasha and Nakuru, which erupted into violence last week, but local travel agents say it is now safe to travel there. All are desperate to stress that throughout the crisis not a single foreign holidaymaker has been harmed.
The few intrepid tourists on safari trips in recent weeks have sometimes had an entire resort to themselves. In the Masai Mara and Samburu game reserves, as well as the lush foothills around Mount Kenya, some lodges have shut for the season rather than open for only one or two guests.
But it is along the picturesque coastal region, which generates around two-thirds of all tourist revenue, that the effects are most keenly felt. Nearly all the hotels, from all-inclusive package destinations to the plush five-star resorts, were overbooked for January and February. But as soon Kibaki was controversially sworn in on December 30, sparking the violence, the cancellations started to pour in. Flights from Europe arrived empty and departed full.
Statistics compiled at a recent crisis meeting of coastal hoteliers show just how dire the situation is. Of the 28 resorts surveyed, occupancy rates ranged from zero to 36%. Only one of the hotels had yet to lay off staff.
A few miles north of Mombasa the Sarova Whitesands resort, the second largest hotel in East Africa, was eerily quiet. Only 60 of the 338 rooms were occupied. All the casual and contract staff have been sent home, and half the employees are on compulsory leave. A sign leading to one section of the five-star hotel saying "You are now entering a quiet zone" was redundant: the entire wing was vacant.
A £2.5m refurbishment programme has been put on hold, said Mohammed Hersi, the general manager, as he read yet another email from a British client cancelling a holiday. "We are trying to cut costs everywhere just to stay afloat."
Hersi said that if the effort by the former UN secretary general Kofi Annan to broker a deal between the government and opposition failed, the entire tourism industry, which employs 250,000 workers directly, and is responsible for an equal number of indirect jobs, "would face a tragedy" that would take years to get over.
For some tourists the knowledge that ordinary Kenyans rather than the elite political class would suffer if they cancelled their trip persuaded them to go ahead. At the Turtle Bay Beach Club in Watamu, on the north coast, which attracts mainly British tourists, Gren and Beryl Davison, and Gordon and Joan Usher, all from Northumberland, were relaxing on the beach.
"Some of our family members weren't happy about us coming," said Joan Usher, who has been to Watamu every year since 1999. "But after we thought of the local staff and what would happen to them if nobody came on holiday, we decided to stick to our plans. We are having a great time."
With Britain and the US amending their travel advice, now warning citizens to avoid only certain areas rather than the entire country, some hoteliers are hoping they can salvage something from the season. At the £100-a-night Leopard Beach resort in Diani, south of Mombasa, where millions of pounds have been spent in the last year constructing a spa, manager Francis Murabe said: "Tell people in Britain that now is the time for the best holiday. It's so quiet that we are upgrading all our guests into the best rooms. Newlyweds won't just get the honeymoon suite, they'll get the master suite."
In figures
· Tourism is Kenya's biggest foreign exchange earner, with revenue topping £500m last year. The industry has grown at 10% to 20% a year for the last four years
· More than a million tourists visited in 2007, the highest figure ever. Some 203,000 were British
· Between January and March 315,000 tourists were expected. The Kenya Tourist Board says the likely figure is now 27,000, resulting in lost revenue of about £126m
· There are 250,000 people working in tourism, with a further 250,000 indirectly employed. Each employee typically supports seven to 12 people
· For every eight tourists who visit, one more job is created.
guardian
